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71.
72.
The M w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.  相似文献   
73.
本文通过地震正演模型和面波振幅数据对比分析了天然地震、爆炸,与核试验数据,以探索改进辨别天然地震与爆炸的方法。所提方法是基于波数域和频率域的双积分变换解。用于研究的地震事件都发生在北朝鲜,其中包括2001年6月26日(39.212°N,125.383°E)和2001年10月30日(38.748°N,125.267°E)所记录的爆炸数据,2006年10月9日(41.275°N,129.095°E)所记录的一次核试验数据、以及2002年4月14日(39.207°N,125.686°E)和2002年6月7日(38.703°N,125.638°E)所记录的两次天然地震。基于这些数据通过地震波分析与理论模拟表明爆炸引起的地震与天然地震有着不同的波型特征。爆炸引起的信号特征是P波的能量较S波强,在爆炸记录上0.05-0.5Hz频率之间Rg波清晰呈现,而在然地震记录上没有。这是由于爆炸地震记录上P波是优势波,与SH成分发生了耦合。  相似文献   
74.
The atmospheric mass density of the upper atmosphere from the spherical Starlette satellite’s Precise Orbit Determination is first derived with Satellite Laser Ranging measurements at 815 to 1115 km during strong solar and geomagnetic activities. Starlette’s orbit is determined using the improved orbit determination techniques combining optimum parameters with a precise empirical drag application to a gravity field. MSIS-86 and NRLMSISE-00 atmospheric density models are compared with the Starlette drag-derived atmospheric density of the upper atmosphere. It is found that the variation in the Starlette’s drag coefficient above 800 km corresponds well with the level of geomagnetic activity. This represents that the satellite orbit is mainly perturbed by the Joule heating from geomagnetic activity at the upper atmosphere. This result concludes that MSIS empirical models strongly underestimate the mass density of the upper atmosphere as compared to the Starlette drag-derived atmospheric density during the geomagnetic storms. We suggest that the atmospheric density models should be analyzed with higher altitude acceleration data for a better understanding of long-term solar and geomagnetic effects.  相似文献   
75.
Calibration chamber tests were conducted on open‐ended model piles driven into dried siliceous sands with different soil conditions in order to clarify the effect of soil conditions on load transfer mechanism in the soil plug. The model pile used in the test series was devised so that the bearing capacity of an open‐ended pile could be measured as three components: outside shaft resistance, plug resistance, and tip resistance. Under the assumption that the unit shaft resistance due to pile‐soil plug interaction varies linearly near the pile tip, the plug resistance was estimated. The plug capacity, which was defined as the plug resistance at ultimate condition, is mainly dependent on the ambient lateral pressure and relative density. The length of wedged plug that transfers the load decreases with the decrease of relative density, but it is independent of the ambient pressure and penetration depth. Under several assumptions, the value of earth pressure coefficient in the soil plug can be calculated. It gradually reduces with increase in the longitudinal distance from the pile tip. At the bottom of the soil plug, it tends to decrease with increase in the penetration depth and relative density, and to increase with the increase of ambient pressure. This may be attributed to (1) the decrease of friction angle as a result of increase in the effective vertical stress, (2) the difference in the dilation degree of the soil plug during driving with ambient pressures, and (3) the difference in compaction degree of soil plug during driving with relative densities. Based on the test results, an empirical equation was suggested to compute the earth pressure coefficient to be used in the calculation of plug capacity using one‐dimensional analysis, and it produces proper plug capacities for all soil conditions.  相似文献   
76.
This study investigates total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) removal from residual clayey soil, after a washing procedure, using an electrokinetic process. Eight electrokinetic experiments were carried out to investigate the characteristics of TPH removal. When 0.1 M MgSO4 or 0.1 M NaOH was used as an electrolyte, the electric current rapidly increased within the first 100 or 200 h, respectively. A negatively charged soil surface resulted in a more negative zeta potential and greater electroosmotic flow toward the cathode. Therefore, the accumulated electroosmotic flow (EOF) when using 0.1 M NaOH as the anolyte‐purging solution was higher than when using 0.1 M MgSO4. Although the energy consumption for the two purging solutions was similar, the efficiencies of TPH removal when 0.1 M MgSO4 and 0.1 M NaOH with surfactant were used were 0 and 39%, respectively, because the electroosmotic flow rate increased with TPH removal efficiency. When 5% isopropyl alcohol (IPA) was used as a circulation solution, the electric current increased but the TPH removal was similar to that using water. In terms of energy consumption, the use of a surfactant‐enhanced electrokinetic process with NaOH as electrolyte was effective in removing TPHs from low‐permeability soil.  相似文献   
77.
In this study, the seismic fragility curves of two reinforced concrete (RC) columns that were lap-spliced at the bottom and retrofitted with steel wrapping jackets were generated. Their seismic performance was probabilistically assessed in comparison to that of lap-spliced or continuous reinforcement RC columns. This study used two types of steel wrapping jackets, a full jacket and a split jacket. Analytical models of the four types of columns were developed based on the experimental results of the columns using OpenSEES, which is effective in conducting nonlinear time history analyses. A suite of ten artificial ground motions, modified from recorded ground motions, was used to perform nonlinear time history analyses of the analytical models with scaling of the peak ground acceleration from 0.1 g to 1.0 g in increments of 0.1 g. The steel wrapping jackets did not increase the medians for yield (slight damage state) of the lap-spiced column and did not exceed the corresponding median of the continuous reinforcement column. However, the two steel jackets increased the medians for failure by 1.872 and 2.017 times, respectively, and exceeded the corresponding median of the continuous reinforcement column by 11.8% and 20.5%, respectively.  相似文献   
78.
This study introduces a new Triangulated Irregular Network(TIN) compression method and a progressive visualization technique using Delaunay triangulation. The compression strategy is based on the assumption that most triangulated 2.5-dimensional terrains are very similar to their Delaunay triangulation. Therefore, the compression algorithm only needs to maintain a few edges that are not included in the Delaunay edges. An efficient encoding method is presented for the set of edges by using vertex reordering and a general bracketing method. In experiments, the compression method examined several sets of TIN data with various resolutions, which were generated by five typical terrain simplification algorithms. By exploiting the results, the connecting structures of common terrain data are compressed to 0.17 bits per vertex on average, which is superior to the results of previous methods. The results are shown by a progressive visualization method for web-based GIS.  相似文献   
79.
This study analyzes how the stochastically generated rainfall time series accounting for the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics can improve the prediction of watershed response variables such as peak flow and runoff depth. The modified Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulse (MBLRP) rainfall generation model was improved such that it can account for the inter-annual variability of the observed rainfall statistics. Then, the synthetic rainfall time series was generated using the MBLRP model, which was used as input rainfall data for SCS hydrologic models to produce runoff depth and peak flow in a virtual watershed. These values were compared to the ones derived from the synthetic rainfall time series that is generated from the traditional MBLRP rainfall modeling. The result of the comparison indicates that the rainfall time series reflecting the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics reduces the biasness residing in the predicted peak flow values derived from the synthetic rainfall time series generated using the traditional MBLRP approach by 26–47 %. In addition, it was observed that the overall variability of the peak flow and run off depth distribution was better represented when the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics are considered.  相似文献   
80.
The effect of location errors in the performance of seismicity-based forecasting methods was studied here using one particular binary forecast technique, the Pattern Informatics (PI) technique (Rundle et al., Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 99, 2514–2521, 2002; Tiampo et al., Pure Appl Geophys 159, 2429–2467, 2002). The Southern Californian dataset was used to generate a series of perturbed catalogs by adding different levels of noise to epicenter locations. The PI technique was applied to these perturbed datasets to perform retrospective forecasts that were evaluated by means of skill scores, commonly used in atmospheric sciences. These results were then compared to the effectiveness obtained from the original dataset. Isolated instances of decline of the PI performance were observed due to the nature of the skill scores themselves, but no clear trend of degradation was identified. Dependence on the total number of events in a catalog also was studied, with no systematic degradation in the performance of the PI for catalogs with events in the cases studied. These results suggest that the stability of the PI method is due to the invariance of the clustering patterns identified by the TM metric (Thirumalai and Mountain, Phys Rev A 39, 3563–3573, 1989) when applied to seismicity.  相似文献   
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